Spread During News — Measured Minute by Minute FxPro India

CPI, Core CPI n.s.a. m/m, CPI y/y, Core CPI m/m — 14 Jul 2026, 18:00 IST

Definitions: quiet spread = median of the 15 minutes before the release; peak = widest single quote after it. All-in = peak spread × pip value + $7 round-turn Raw+ commission ($3.50/side, 1 lot) — quiet EUR/USD all-in is $9 ($2 spread + $7 commission). Peak vs daily range = peak spread as a share of the instrument’s average daily range. Back to normal = first quote under 1.5× the quiet median. * Gold always runs wide relative to FX, so its share of daily range is small and it “recovers” almost instantly by this measure. Times in IST.

What printed

Values as published by the platform calendar feed (its own scale — e.g. payrolls in thousands).

All six instruments, minute by minute

Each cell is the average spread of that minute as a multiple of the quiet median — the instant peaks in the table above are single quotes inside minute 0, so a ×4 minute average and a ×18 instant peak describe the same event.

Tick density across instruments ran ×1.4–×2.2 the usual rate in the release minute; everything is flat again by about +2 minutes.

Stops that survive the spike

FxPro’s measured stops level is 0 points on all six instruments — stops and straddle orders can sit at any distance. The practical floor during a release is the spread itself: at this print an EUR/USD stop closer than about 13.8 pips could have been filled by the spread alone, with price effectively unmoved, and a gold stop inside 225 points ($2.25) was equally exposed. The 1.5× buffer over the measured peak covers the post-peak chop before quotes settle.

Every release we have measured (37 windows since Jul 2026)

This history grows automatically: every high-impact release is captured once and kept.

Why the release is the gap in every practice month

Everything else in a practice month has a slower version of itself that can be drilled. A release does not. The measured behaviour above shows what happens to conditions in those minutes, and it is the same on a funded account, but the part that goes wrong for beginners is the improvisation, and improvisation cannot be practised in a setting where nothing is lost.

This is why a plan written before the event outperforms any amount of rehearsal. It does not have to be clever - standing aside is a complete plan, and for a first month it is usually the right one. What it has to be is written down before the minute arrives, because a decision made during those minutes will be made by whichever instinct is loudest.

Judge yourself afterwards on whether the plan was followed, not on what the price did. A plan that was followed and lost is a good month. A plan that was abandoned and won is the worst possible outcome, because it will be repeated.

What the history shows about releases, and what it hides

The timestamps are unambiguous. Entries clustered into the minutes around a scheduled release are visible at a glance, and so are positions that were open beforehand and closed immediately afterwards. Both are worth reading, and neither needs any analysis to find.

What the record cannot show is which of them were planned. A position held through a release deliberately and one held through it because closing felt like admitting something look identical in the history - the same pattern that makes the overnight page worth reading, arriving in a compressed form.

The journal line that fixes this is short: before the session, write what you intend to do at the release and what would make you deviate. Two sentences. A week later they turn an ambiguous cluster of timestamps into a straightforward yes or no.

A weekly pass over the releases you actually traded through

List them - there are rarely many. For each one, write what the plan said and what the record shows. The two columns either match or they do not, and no interpretation is required.

Where they do not match, the useful question is what happened in the minutes before, not during. A plan abandoned at the release was usually already wobbling an hour earlier, and the state-of-mind line in the entries around it tends to say so.

Where they do match, leave it alone. Following a plan that produced a loss is the outcome the first months are for, and rewriting it because the result disappointed you undoes the only thing that was working.

Preparing for a release without pretending it can be rehearsed

1. Check the schedule before the session starts, so no release arrives as a surprise mid-position.
2. Write the plan in advance in one sentence - stand aside, close beforehand, or hold with a level already set - and treat standing aside as a complete answer.
3. Write what would make you deviate from it, so a deviation later is a decision rather than a reflex.
4. After the event, record what you actually did before looking at the result, because the result rewrites the memory within minutes.
5. At the weekly review, compare plan against record and judge the week on that match alone.

The measured behaviour above tells you what the conditions do. Only the written plan tells you what you did, and only the comparison is worth reviewing.

The three plans, and what each one leaves in the record

Three of these four rows are reviewable. The fourth is the reason most first months teach less than they should.

What a release month is scored on

Every row on the right can be checked a week later from two short sentences written in advance.

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